Final Phase, Not A New Crash
Cowen believes Bitcoin is moving through the final leg of its bear cycle, consistent with the four-year pattern that has defined crypto markets since the beginning, with a low expected in late Q3 or early Q4 2026.
The signal he is watching is volume. In 2014, 2018 and 2022, each bottom arrived with a sharp spike in trading activity, a capitulation moment where sellers ran out of steam.
“I would want to see a big volume spike to accompany like we saw at the end of 2014, 2018, and 2022,” he said.
If that spike appears earlier than his current timeline, he is prepared to update his view.
“If we get a big capitulation sooner, I would pivot,” he added.
The Realized Price Debate
One of the most discussed data points this cycle is Bitcoin’s realized price, sitting around $53,000. Every previous bear market has eventually seen Bitcoin break below this level. The current cycle has not, which some analysts interpret as either a sign of strength or a delayed reckoning.
Cowen dismisses the delayed narrative. Looking at the past three cycles, he pointed out that Bitcoin did not drop below the realized price until Q4 in two of them.
“In two of the last three cycles, BTC did not drop below the realized price until Q4, so this is not really delayed,” he said.
The $30,000 to $38,000 Question
If Bitcoin were to fall to the balance price range of $30,000 to $38,000, Cowen sees that as an opportunity rather than a catastrophe.
“Probably a buying opportunity if history is any indication,” he said,
While acknowledging that a drop to that range accompanied by a volume spike would be the signal he is waiting for.
Technical Picture
Bitcoin is caught between the 200-week moving average ($61,000–$63,000 range) and the bear market resistance band. Cowen said the price has been breaking down and a countertrend rally this summer remains possible, but his base case is lower before durably higher.
“It has been breaking down. Could always get one more countertrend rally this summer, but likely lower before durably higher,” he said.
Altcoins, Ethereum And XRP
On the broader market, Cowen issued a warning. Social interest is weak and the altcoin setup does not look strong to him. A Bitcoin bounce could give altcoins a temporary lift but he does not expect sustained moves for most of the market before next year.
“Social interest is weak, alts don’t look great to me. If BTC bounces, obviously alts can run some, but likely no real moves until next year for most alts,” he said.
The Four-Year Cycle
Asked whether the four-year cycle risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, Cowen pushed back with a broader historical point. The pattern exists well outside of crypto.
The S&P 500 put in major lows in 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1982, each roughly four years apart, with more recent lows in 2018 and 2022.
“The four-year cycle exists outside of crypto too,” he said, hinting 2026 may fit the same pattern.
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